CRIME FORECASTING AND METHODS OF IMPLEMENTATION

Abstract

The article reveals the history of the development of forecasting, the concept of forecasting, scientific forecasting, the importance of forecasting in criminology, including other sciences, the essence, features, and differentiation of criminological forecasting, its tasks, goals, and types, which include crime in general, but also the concept of forecasting individual criminal behavior, criminological situations, subjects and objects of forecasting, and their role in choosing the method to be used for forecasting crime. The general and special methods of realization of crime forecasting are given: sociological survey, statistical method, method of extrapolation, method of expert evaluation, method of least squares, method of scientific hypothesis (hypothesis), as well as the classification and concept of these methods with examples. The necessity of studying quantitative and qualitative indicators, as well as the causes and conditions contributing to the commission of crimes, in predicting changes in crime indicators is revealed. The peculiarities of human behavior, factors influencing the formation of human behavior, the concept of crime control planning, types of plans, components of plans, the relationship between forecasting and planning, and the role of criminological forecasting in planning activities aimed at eliminating problems in the fight against crime and crime prevention are analyzed.